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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award follows a simple pattern. It commonly serves as a type of mea culpa. We regret we misjudged your franchise in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who engineered the largest turnaround receives the prize. In reality, it fuels an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring superior coaching or just the most shocking shock.

Yet the current race is profoundly different. The group of contenders is exceptionally talented. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been chaotic, with reigning division champions declining and longtime also-rans rising together. Under an typical year, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in this chaotic and thrilling season, he's up against multiple other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the projected ballot ought to shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right environment, Williams has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent dominance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system instead of going rogue. It is an attack designed solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action and a innovative aerial game that springs wide receiver targets all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been able to create big plays from nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost each decision – overhauling the trenches, featuring the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the building with the level of pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme wizard but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a ordinary season, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But the current isn't a normal campaign!

The area where his candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are famously fickle. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. But he falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has mastered the off-field aspects, which wasn't a guarantee after his initial public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal coaching blend of youth and experience, he bet on first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

After an early strong beginning, there was a risk that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags stumbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting consistent ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller could have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still